If you missed our event 'Shifting Global Energy Cycles', catch up here!
Moderator Sarah Williamson of Watson Farley & Williams steered a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion on the forces shaping global energy markets. Panellists Saad Rahim (Trafigura), Carlos Bellorin (Welligence) and Peter Wood (Shell) explored the interplay between supply constraints, evolving demand, geopolitics and investment decision-making, cutting through short-term noise to focus on the structural dynamics likely to define the energy system in the years ahead.
Supply dynamics
The discussion highlighted a growing disconnect between global energy demand and the industry’s ability to deliver sufficient supply over the medium to long term. While resource availability remains ample, declining production from existing assets and prolonged underinvestment in new projects were seen as key risks. Long project lead times mean that decisions taken today – particularly around exploration and capital allocation – will shape market balance later this decade.
Demand dynamics
Participants noted that while demand growth is moderating in some mature economies, global energy needs remain robust. Rising populations, urbanisation and improving access to energy across emerging markets continue to underpin demand, even as efficiency gains and electrification progress elsewhere. Unmet energy needs were a recurring theme, reinforcing the view that overall demand is likely to plateau rather than decline sharply in the near term.
Geopolitics and trade flows
Geopolitical developments were widely seen as reshaping energy markets. Sanctions, strategic stockpiling and shifting alliances are altering trade flows and contributing to greater volatility. A more fragmented global landscape is increasing uncertainty for producers and consumers alike, with energy security playing a more prominent role alongside affordability and sustainability considerations.
Investment climate
The conversation underscored persistent challenges in the investment environment. Capital discipline, shareholder returns and rising financing costs continue to constrain upstream spending, even as long-term supply risks grow more apparent. While the energy transition is advancing, participants noted that its capital intensity, infrastructure requirements and reliance on critical minerals present significant hurdles. Gas was highlighted as a key balancing fuel in the medium term, supporting system reliability as power demand rises and renewable capacity expands.